The point of investing is to make money on your money. Judging the earning potential of an investment is basic to making this work. This is the case for both long term investors who buy and hold for years and for stock traders who attempt to time the market in search of short term profits. The earning potential of any investment depends on appreciation in value, realized earnings in the short term (dividends), and the value of the currency in which the investment is denominated. The last factor is affected by inflation and the volatility of the Forex market.
By many measures the current stock market highs are crazy. We wrote months ago about how the stock market is ignoring the economy. Unemployment is still at historic lows, congress is not coming across with another stimulus, and people are running out of money. This will result in families tightening their belts, buying as little as possible, and driving the financials of many companies downward. Nevertheless, many investors seem to be ignoring the fundamentals and trying to eke out more profits before taking their profits.
Economists are already saying that the coronavirus pandemic
will drive the world economy to levels not seen since the Great Depression. In
our article, How Far Could Stocks Fall, we noted that the 1929 stock
market crash (which ushered in the Great Depression) was not limited to October
of 1929. The market continued to fall until late 1932 by which time the Dow
Jones Industrial Average had lost 90% of its previous value. Anyone who has
cash in hand will have many opportunities to buy excellent stocks at bargain
prices when the market bottoms out. But, when will that be? When should you buy
When Should You […]
Over the course of the longest bull market in history contrarian investors have again and again predicted doom and gloom and been burned again and again. As noted in the movie “The Big Short,” there are times when shorting a stock can be immensely profitable. But, choosing what to short and timing of when to do it are keys to making money with this approach. Unfortunately for contrarian investors, in the last year the “most shorted stocks” went up as a group more than twenty percent! So, you should beware of shorting stocks. […]
“Sell in May and go away” is an old investment adage that seems to be true more often than not. Should you really sell your investments in May or simply stop trading stocks? CNBC notes that the recent rally might be a concern because after the previous early year rally stocks plummeted over the summer.
Stocks have surged through April in their best start to a year in 32 years.
But, markets don’t have a good track record of following up on a rally of that size.
“There are four other years since World War II that the S&P was up at least […]
A friend of ours commented recently that panic buying of investments is a bad sign. He is old enough to remember when the three Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market and failed.
Panic Buying of Silver in 1979 to 1980
The boom and bust of silver prices is remembered as Silver Thursday, March 27, 1980. Silver was trading at around $6 an ounce in early 1979 and as the brothers purchased increasingly larger amounts of silver on margin, the price rose to $49.45 by January 18, 1980. By that time the three Hunt brothers controlled a third of all silver […]
Stocks seem to be recovering from the end-of-2018 correction. Is this the start of a new upward trend or are we still in for continued volatility? When you believe that a stock, real estate investment opportunity, or any investment is about to go up in value, how do you choose the right time to buy an investment? Although there are a few seasonal predictors of stock prices, choosing the right time to buy or sell typically has to do with intrinsic value versus current market price. Now that stocks are recovering a bit, what are the factors to watch for?
The stock market had a tough time of it at the end of 2018. Despite a partial recovery the tech darlings that led market gains for years have investors worried. If you have ridden the bull market for gains over the last few years, is it time to consider some changes in your investment portfolio? For most investors, the question is whether the market will come back or not this year. But there are a number of reasons to consider getting out. So, when should you sell an investment? Here are some thoughts on the subject.
When Should You Sell an […]