The market fell the other day on news that an early trade war deal is not likely. But, the trade war is only one symptom of problems with the world economy. This got us to thinking, what are safe investments in an uncertain world? In that regard, it is instructive to look at how major changes in the economy, technology, and other factors affect your investments over the long term.
Investing in Carriages When They Are Making Cars
Since we are thinking of long term issues with your investments, we thought that a little history lesson […]
Just the other day the stock market rallied on news that the USA and China were close to an interim trade deal. And then the market slides back on news that there would be delays and problems. Thus, any of your investments that have anything to do with China are being held hostage. In the short term, political gamesmanship is the major factor but over the long term, there are very deep and permanent issues that each nation is fighting for in this matter. A year ago we posed the question, what happens to […]
Have you thought about investments for the coming recession? What? Isn’t the market going to surge forward when Trump makes a deal in the trade war with the Chinese? Hasn’t the market defied every critic for years and years? The answers are “possible” and “yes.” However, every bull market ends. And, the ones that last the longest and run the highest often have the worse fall. As the economy cycles, we will see a downturn sooner or later. The bond market is betting on soon and on a downturn that will last a […]
The president stated recently that there is a partial deal in the works to advance talks in the trade war between the USA and China. Part of our speculation as this story has played out is about what investments will do well when the trade war is resolved. In that regard, Apple rose to an all-time high on the news. Will there be a trade war peace dividend? If so, this is the time to jump in with both feet. Or, is this just more posturing with a permanent trade war the more […]
Another brick in the trade war wall between the USA and China was laid last week when the White House suggested that Chinese stocks might be delisted from U.S. stock exchanges. Stocks fell briefly before a White House spokesperson denies the “rumor.” We have written for years about the risks of investing in China. A few years back we discussed the flight of capital from China. Wealthy Chinese were taking the money they made during China’s economic rise and using it to start businesses, buy property, and simply move their money out of China. […]
The recovery from the Financial Crisis has been impressive and prolonged. However, a combination of factors is causing headwinds that the US economy may not be able to overcome. While pundits in the media, social and print, argue both sides of the issue, the bond market is betting heavily on an economic downturn. Are you ready for the 2020 recession? Here we will look at why next year is likely when the economic “ax” will fall and then what you can do to protect your investment portfolio.
Will There Be a Recession Starting in 2020?
In the last year and a half we have looked at the evolving trade war between the US and China and, to a degree, between the US and everyone else. As the situation has evolved, we are now looking at investing during a permanent trade war. Here is how our thinking has evolved. To begin with, we appear to have been overly optimistic. In March of 2018 we asked what can you invest in and not get hurt by a trade war. At that time our belief was that companies in entertainment, like Disney, […]
China and the USA have both hardened their positions to protect their national interests in the ongoing trade war. China is increasingly talking about not being humiliated as during the European Colonial Era and the USA is increasingly talking about China as a threat to US technological and economic leadership. What you need to consider is how to go about investing during a protracted trade war.
How Will the Trade War Affect Investments?
To the extent that you are invested in China, you may need to worry about the companies that will be sanctioned or cut […]
The trade war shows more and more signs of becoming a permanent fixture in our lives and especially in the world of investments. In our article about the possibility of the trade war becoming permanent, we discussed how both China and the U.S.A. view this issue in the broader scope of global power and homeland security. As such, both sides are ramping up their tariffs and making no-so-hidden threats about what comes next. One of the things that especially caught our attention was the Chinese threat to cut off the export of rare earth metals to the U.S.A. At this […]
China has been the land of investment opportunity for decades with many investments in China doing very well. The benefits of investing in China came from its emergence as a developing economy, huge population and consumer base, and cheap workforce which attracted lots of foreign direct investment. Over the years China’s stock market matured, offering investment opportunities for average investors and many Chinese companies became listed in the USA as ADRs (American Depositary Receipts). Likewise, many mutual funds provided reasonably safe investment options by including Chinese stocks in their portfolios. There has always been risk associated with investments in China […]