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Posts Tagged trade war


Ready for the 2020 Recession?

The recovery from the Financial Crisis has been impressive and prolonged. However, a combination of factors is causing headwinds that the US economy may not be able to overcome. While pundits in the media, social and print, argue both sides of the issue, the bond market is betting heavily on an economic downturn. Are you ready for the 2020 recession? Here we will look at why next year is likely when the economic “ax” will fall and then what you can do to protect your investment portfolio.

Will There Be a Recession Starting in 2020?

The […]

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Investing During a Permanent Trade War

In the last year and a half we have looked at the evolving trade war between the US and China and, to a degree, between the US and everyone else. As the situation has evolved, we are now looking at investing during a permanent trade war. Here is how our thinking has evolved. To begin with, we appear to have been overly optimistic. In March of 2018 we asked what can you invest in and not get hurt by a trade war. At that time our belief was that companies in entertainment, like Disney, […]

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Investing During a Protracted Trade War

China and the USA have both hardened their positions to protect their national interests in the ongoing trade war. China is increasingly talking about not being humiliated as during the European Colonial Era and the USA is increasingly talking about China as a threat to US technological and economic leadership. What you need to consider is how to go about investing during a protracted trade war.

How Will the Trade War Affect Investments?

To the extent that you are invested in China, you may need to worry about the companies that will be sanctioned or cut […]

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Investing in Non-Chinese Rare Earth Producers

The trade war shows more and more signs of becoming a permanent fixture in our lives and especially in the world of investments. In our article about the possibility of the trade war becoming permanent, we discussed how both China and the U.S.A. view this issue in the broader scope of global power and homeland security. As such, both sides are ramping up their tariffs and making no-so-hidden threats about what comes next. One of the things that especially caught our attention was the Chinese threat to cut off the export of rare earth metals to the U.S.A. At this […]

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Are There Safe Investments in China?

China has been the land of investment opportunity for decades with many investments in China doing very well. The benefits of investing in China came from its emergence as a developing economy, huge population and consumer base, and cheap workforce which attracted lots of foreign direct investment. Over the years China’s stock market matured, offering investment opportunities for average investors and many Chinese companies became listed in the USA as ADRs (American Depositary Receipts). Likewise, many mutual funds provided reasonably safe investment options by including Chinese stocks in their portfolios. There has always been risk associated with investments in China […]

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Are Your Investments Safe from Tariffs?

The stock market is falling in response to a step up of the trade war. Negotiations seem to have stalled as both the USA and China refuse to budge over issues that they consider essential to their national interests. We alluded to this sort of situation in our article about what happen if the trade war becomes permanent. The American dominance of the global economy is not an assured thing and neither is the dominance that China wants to achieve. But both nations are squaring off to fight for what they want. The down side for the USA is reduced […]

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Win the Trade War and Lose on Your Investments

The trade negotiations between the USA and China are coming to a head. Will there be genuine gains for the USA? We have written how both the USA and China have issues that they see as crucial to their national prosperity and security in our article about if the trade war becomes permanent. However, neither side wants to suffer the economic pain that could come out of a protracted trade war. China, especially, is seeing economic difficulties on the horizon and needs to do something sooner rather than later. So, there may well be a deal forthcoming. However, from the […]

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How Do Job Cutbacks in China Relate to Your Investments?

China has been the economic miracle of the world for decades. From Nixon’s visit in 1972 to its entry into the World Trade Organization to the current day, China has not had a negative growth year since 1978 and has average a 10% GDP growth rate. At the same time North American and Europe are ecstatic with an occasional 5% growth rate and typically languish in the 2% to 3% range. But, things are not all well in the Land of Managed Capitalism (by the Communist Party). Debt is rising and there is a potential for a long term trade […]

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Investment Risks for 2019

The stock market has been volatile and ended 2018 badly as the worst year in the last ten. Has the market gotten the jitters out of its system or is more trouble in store? What are the investment risks for 2019 and how can you prepare your investment portfolio?
Investment Risks for 2019

The trade war will continue and get worse.
Interest rates will rise excessively due to the Federal Reserve.
The global and U.S. economy will slow down.
As a result the stock market will continue to be volatile and experience losses.

Investment Risks for 2019 from the Trade War
The deficit that the USA runs […]

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What Investments Will Prosper When the Trade War is Resolved?

As the G-20 summit approaches, many are hopeful that a scheduled meeting between the leaders of the USA and China will result in at least a temporary truce in the evolving trade war. Our take on this is that there are long-term, core issues that the USA needs to have addressed and which China does not want to talk about. So, the question for investors is, what investments will prosper when the trade war is resolved for good or for ill? But, first here is a bit of background on the trade war.
Possible Truce in Trade War?
The New York Times […]

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