Invest in the Dollar

As the debt dilemma continues and the Euro Zone increases its lending limit again the dollar is rising. Is it time to invest in the dollar? To invest in the dollar does not mean that a long term investor needs to become a Forex trader. But it does mean that he may want to look at investing in US automakers instead of regional overseas investment funds. As the dollar goes up and the Euro goes down, oil, denominated in dollars, becomes more expensive in a European economy headed into recession. Thus oil is heading downwards as well. The press quoted the Saudi oil minister as saying that global oil supply is more than a million barrels a day in excess of demand. A stronger dollar makes oil cheaper in the USA but drives up the cost in Europe. That is likely to assisting in worsening the Euro Zone economy while giving US businesses an advantage. While a European recession is helping drive down Chinese exports, US manufacturing is just under three years into a prolonged expansion. Perhaps it is time to invest in the dollar by way of US stocks.

The USA is decreasing its dependence on foreign oil through investment in sustainable fracking technology. As the US moves toward being the world’s number one producer of oil and natural gas, the price of natural gas in the USA has fallen dramatically. This is great news for US consumers and a boost to the US economy. Money that is not spent on oil as gas is available for investment that will help drive economic expansion. The US oil and gas industry is seeing boom times that are likely to continue. Manufacturing is up. And, the Chinese Yuan is being allowed to float more widely in daily currency trading. The issue of a cheap Yuan has plagued US industry for years as a cheap Yuan has helped Chinese companies sell for less in the USA. A more expensive Yuan will make US products more competitive both in China itself and worldwide. To invest in the dollar, an investor does not need to buy dollars and put them in the bank. He simply uses his dollars to invest in dollar denominated investments, especially in the USA.

A Greek financial collapse is back on the table and with that comes the possibility of an exit from the European Union. Investors are concerned that if Greece defaults on its debt, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, or even France might be next. If a “domino effect” set of financial collapses is likely a run on banks in Europe would likely be next followed by a shutdown in credit across the world. On one hand the wins by socialists in elections in Europe have upset the painfully ironed out debt relief deals now in place. However, a change of approach that would avoid painful austerity measures could avert a recession. The cost would be inflation and a still less valuable Euro compared to the dollar. So, here we are back to the premise that to invest in the dollar in the weeks, months, and perhaps years to come may well be a good idea. Although we are not suggesting any specific investments it will probably be a good idea to look at which business sectors will benefit from a stronger dollar, which business sectors will benefit from less expensive energy prices, and which stocks are likely to rise as a consequence.

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