Three Potential Black Swans
Despite concerns about stocks being overpriced the markets keep going higher and higher. And that means stocks all over the world are going up. Every time this sort of market euphoria occurs it is eventually followed by a day or reckoning. Market Watch writes that the recent breakout in stocks should not be trusted and cites three potential black swans. Black swans, by the way, are unpredictable or unforeseen events. They discuss this issue after nine global stock indexes have topped out at the same time.
There have been 39 times when each of those nine indexes has closed at multiyear […]
What Would a Pence Presidency Mean for the Economy?
As troubles mount in the Trump White House the talking heads on TV have started to utter the “I” word, impeachment. As the independent prosecutor investigation proceeds into the question of coordination between the Trump campaign and Russian hackers this issue will linger. No one is really predicting a Trump exit and a Pence presidency just yet but a year ago no one was predicting a Trump presidency! On the outside chance that things go from bad to worse for the 45th president what would a Pence presidency mean for the economy and for the stock market?
Different Economic Messages
The stock […]
Is the Economy Strong or Weak?
The stock market is a forward looking institution. That is to say investors and traders buy and sell based on their beliefs about what tomorrow will bring. However, the eventual price of any given stock always moves toward its intrinsic value, its value based on forward looking earnings. Looking forward the market has moved up with the election of Donald Trump because investors have expected to see tax cuts, infrastructure spending, repatriation of offshore corporate cash and a lot of deregulation. But not all sectors of the economy are doing well so the stock market advance is not spread out […]
Will the 2017 Stock Market Be a Huge Disappointment?
We have written about the stock market response to a Trump presidency. Mr. Trump may be able to push through tax cuts, stimulus spending in infrastructure improvements and make a deal to bring home massive amount of capital currently sequestered offshore. Many believe this will stimulate the economy, bring on inflation and cause the Fed to raise interest rates, which in turn would drive the dollar higher. But will this help the stock market or will the 2017 stock market be a huge disappointment? Fortune weighs in on the side of a lackluster market in 2017 and says that Trump […]
Stock Market Likes Hillary
The most chaotic Presidential election season in anyone’s memory is winding down. On the eve of voting the FBI chief re-opened the previously closed Clinton email issue and the market blinked. Read our article if you missed it, Why Clinton’s Emails Matter to the Stock Market. Then the FBI chief announced just two days prior to the election that never mind, there is no new info and no problem. The stock market likes Hillary and stocks went up. Investor’s Business Daily reports that stocks are up big on Clinton relief.
Stocks roared higher at the open Monday, as the market looks […]
Presidential Debate Scares the Stock Market
A lead article in Reuters says that global stocks fall before U.S. presidential debate. Why is it that the presidential debate scares the stock market?
Stock prices around the world declined on Monday ahead of the first U.S. presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, while oil prices rose in advance of an informal OPEC meeting in Algeria on hopes for an output cut.
Half of America’s likely voters will rely on the presidential debates to help them make their choice between the two major U.S. party nominees in the Nov. 8 election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.
End of the Easy Money Era
The VIX fear index hit its 11th highest level ever as investors come to believe that the Fed has signaled the end of the easy money era. Is this an overreaction or should you be selling stocks right and left? Investor Place comments on how the VIX just misses the top ten most volatile days in a quarter of a century.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), or fear gauge, soared ahead 39.9% on in Friday trading, making it the 11th greatest move in the index in more than 25 years.
Wall Street simply got spooked by worries that the end of the […]
Is There a False Economy?
All sorts of interesting ideas pop up during a presidential campaign. This year one of the ideas floated by candidate Trump is that the Fed has created a false economy. CNN reports the story.
Now Trump is blaming the Fed for creating a “false economy” with its emphasis on extremely low interest rates.
“They’re keeping rates down because they don’t want everything else to go down,” the Republican presidential nominee told Reuters on Monday.
Trump said the “only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market.”
It’s the latest example of Trump doubting the bull market in stocks and criticizing the Federal Reserve, […]
Will a Weaker Dollar Hurt Stocks?
The dollar is heading for its worst month this decade after Fed Chairman Janet Yellen reiterated that the Fed will move cautiously in raising interest rates. For the investors the question is, will a weaker dollar hurt stocks or help? Bloomberg Business writes about Yellen sending the dollar to its worst month since 2010.
The dollar headed for its worst month in 5 1/2 years after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen doused speculation the U.S. central bank will pick up the pace of interest-rate increases. The yen strengthened.
A gauge of the greenback approached the lowest since June after Yellen said the […]
Stock Picks for 2014
Smart people like the folks at Barrons are talking about there being too many bulls and not enough bears in the market today. This is a natural response to a broad based 30% rise in the stock market over the last year. Many investors were hurt badly during the 2008 market crash and are absolutely […]