“What would you do if you inherited a million dollars?” In the Corn Belt where this author grew up the answer to this question used to be, “I would go into farming until the money was all gone.” Farming can be a risky business. The farmer prepares his fields, plants, fertilizers, and tends his crops. If the weather is perfect and his crop is not destroyed by hail, drought, or insect of other infestations, he may have a bumper crop. Unfortunately, if bumper crops are the norm in all growing areas, the price of his corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar beets, etc. is unprofitably low. The farmer needs good prices along with a good harvest in order to make a profit. He also needs markets where he can sell his crops. The first issues have been a problem for ever. The lack of foreign markets is somewhat unique to the Trump era and makes us wonder if American agriculture will survive the Trump trade wars.
US Farmers Struggle
A recent article in Bloomberg notes that US farmers struggle due the loss of Chinese customers. American exports of soybeans to China have suffered due to the trade war and China and farmers are looking for new markets. American farmers, who generally supported Trump ae having second thoughts and even feeling betrayed. The Bloomberg article dwells on the how many farmers have lost their farms or are dealing with chronic stress-driven psychological issues compounded by the loss of their biggest market for soybeans and other crops.
Trump and the Value of Farmland
Although many farmers deal with huge amounts of stress and often have unprofitable years back to back in places like Iowa they use the value of their land to obtain credit to stay afloat until a good year or two. Generally the value of farmland has gone up yearly. However in 2024 and 2025 farmland has gone down in value in Iowa in the heart of the American Corn Belt. This compounds the difficulties facing American farmers on top of the loss of markets and widespread belief that the man they believed in and helped elect president has abandoned them.
Reduced Governmental Support for Farmers
As a partial remedy for the many risks that farming entails, the US government has for years funded various support programs. These include technical assistance for conservation efforts, disaster assistance, crop insurance programs such as PLC and ARC, government funded support and financial aid such as grants and loans from the USDA Farm Service Agency. Additionally, the government has paid for food via Medicaid, and the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program which provided another market for farm produce. All of these have been subject to budget cuts or are in danger of cuts. The Food for Peace program has been cancelled which was another program that provided at “market” for farm production. All of this compounds the problem caused by Trump’s trade war and loss of China as the biggest market for US farm exports.
Safest Agricultural Investments
Over the years it has been safer and more profitable to own farmland and rent it out to someone to do the work and incur the risks of doing the farming. The value of farmland has increased over the years with some variability and the usual way to rent the land is to receive a check on March 1 and never be involved in worrying about crop prices, weather, or the cost of feed, fuel or crop insurance. However, it remains to be seem whether or not farm prices will continue to increase over the years if there is permanent decrease in markets for farm produce and permanent decrease in government support programs.