The most unusual presidential campaign in the history of the USA is rounding the bend with the respective conventions. In our last article we looked at what a Trump presidency would mean for stocks. Today our question is what would a Clinton presidency mean for stocks? Kiplinger has already weighed in with their 7 best stocks to own if Clinton wins.
We’ve compiled a list of firms that stand to benefit if Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is elected in November. Because Clinton has been in politics longer and has released a greater number of official policy positions than Donald Trump, her expected Republican opponent, investors have a better chance of anticipating how various industries might be affected by a Clinton presidency than they would by a Trump victory.
Although we have an idea about what Clinton would want the odds are that the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives even if they lose the senate. Thus there will need to be deal making for the government work function. That having been said here are the Kiplinger picks.
- Cognizant Tech Solutions
- Hospital Corporation of America
- Lockheed Martin
- Marriott International
- Sun Power
- Toll Brothers
- Wal-Mart Stores
As Kiplinger notes Clinton has a long track record and stated policy positions on a huge number of issues. As such it is a lot easier to decide how the market would be affected when she is president as opposed to if Trump pulls off an upset.
Fox News predicts an election correction for stocks.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has gained 5.9%, on average, during presidential election years. But in the presidential elections in which neither candidate was an incumbent, the S&P declined by an average 3.3%.
Analysts chalk this up to uncertainty if neither candidate is an incumbent. But the logical corollary is that after the election the market should get used to the new president and correct upwards. If that is the case either presidency would be generally good for stocks.
Can They Work Together?
If governmental power is split after the election the most experienced politician may be the one that will be able to cut deals and keep the government functioning. A valid concern is that with another Clinton in the White House the Republicans will simply entrench and attempt to block everything that the Democrats propose. If this the case the question is not only what would a Clinton presidency mean for stocks but what would Democrat controlled congress or a split congress mean for stocks?
Will the Democrats Win Everything?
In a normal election year one can usually predict how the senate and house will be based on the strength of a party’s presidential nominee. This year Trump says he does not need the party and is jeopardizing Republican control of both houses of congress. The Denver Post says that Republicans should worry about losing the house.
Republicans need to start worrying about losing their majority in the House of Representatives.
Clinton’s lead in the polls is widening to the point that Republicans need to set aside their complacency. Split-ticket voting has declined over the last generation. If Clinton wins big – because Republican voters stay home, or swing voters choose her party, or both – House Republicans will struggle to win re-election. Henry Olsen, the co-author of a recent book about the Republican Party, tells me that an eight-point win would put Republicans in the danger zone.
What would a Clinton presidency mean for stocks? Watch for which party emerges with a majority in the House of Representatives.