Professional investors pay handsomely for alternative data, but retail investors can approximate much of the edge with free, public sources and a disciplined process. The goal isn’t perfection – it’s corroboration. Before buying or adding to a position, run through these nine checks to see whether real-world breadcrumbs support (or contradict) the story you’re telling yourself about a company.
1) Google Trends pulse
Type the company’s brand and key product names into Google Trends and compare against a 12-month baseline. You’re looking for sustained breakouts in search interest, not single-day spikes driven by news. If brand interest rises while category terms are flat, that can hint at share gains; if category interest rises but the brand lags, the tide may be lifting competitors, not your pick.
2) App store review velocity
For app-centric businesses, page through recent reviews on Apple’s App Store and Google Play. Track two things: volume and rating stability. A steady increase in fresh reviews with 4-5★ averages often mirrors user growth. Watch for sudden rating slumps tied to specific complaints (battery drain, payment bugs). That pattern can warn of churn or monetization issues before they hit the 10-Q.
3) Public web-traffic snapshots
Free versions of web analytics tools provide directional traffic estimates. You’re not auditing exact numbers – just looking for inflections: multi-month uptrends, step-changes after product launches, or divergence versus peers. Combine this with average visit duration and bounce-rate direction (when available). Rising visits plus improving engagement is a healthier mix than raw traffic increases with worsening engagement.
4) Job-posting footprints
Search LinkedIn and Indeed for the company’s open roles. Hiring in revenue-touching functions (enterprise sales, channel partnerships) or in core R&D (e.g., AI/ML, chip design) can signal expansion plans. Conversely, abrupt freezes or broad “hiring pauses” may telegraph caution. Don’t overinterpret one week of postings; look for multi-week trends and alignment with stated strategy.
5) Insider buying clusters (Form 4s)
Executives sell for many reasons, but they typically buy for one: they believe shares are undervalued. Scan recent Form 4 filings for meaningful open-market purchases, especially when multiple officers/directors buy within a short window. Size matters – $500k of buys across the C-suite speaks louder than a lone $25k nibble. Treat options exercises differently than open-market buys.
6) 10-K/10-Q language shifts
Skim the latest filings, comparing Risk Factors and MD&A to the prior period. You’re hunting for changes: new phrases like “elongated sales cycles,” “inventory build,” “material weakness,” or “going concern.” Conversely, removal of a prior red flag can be bullish. Track whether management’s tone on demand, margins, and guidance confidence is strengthening or softening.
7) Customer sentiment drift
Read the most recent verified reviews on retailer sites, G2/Capterra (software), or industry forums. Ignore the loudest single review; look for repeated themes over the last 30-60 days. Are customers praising the same improvement (faster shipping, better battery life)? Are complaints clustering around a specific SKU or update? Consistent patterns often precede KPIs moving in earnings.
8) Supply tightness tells
Check the company’s store and major resellers for “out of stock” frequency, wait times, and discounting. Stockouts with firm pricing can indicate strong demand; stockouts with heavy discounting may signal supply hiccups. Likewise, persistent markdowns on flagship products can hint at inventory clearing. Re-check weekly to see whether conditions normalize or worsen.
9) Funding & partner breadcrumbs
Browse press rooms and developer blogs for small but accumulating announcements: new partner logos, reseller agreements, pilot programs, certifications, or grants. One minor partnership isn’t thesis-changing; three to five in a quarter can show momentum in distribution or ecosystem credibility. Map these deals to your growth narrative – do they unlock new segments or geographies?
Pulling it together
None of these signals is a silver bullet; together they form a sturdy cross-check. If five or six lights turn green – and none flash red – you have higher confidence that fundamentals are moving your way. If several contradict your thesis, slow down, size smaller, or pass. Build this checklist into your routine, jot quick notes for each holding, and revisit monthly. This article is for education, not financial advice – always do your own research and invest within your risk tolerance.