How to Pick Stock Winners for 2017

Will the Trump stock rally continue or fizzle? Will the market shrug off rising interest rates or will the Fed’s actions torpedo the stock market? Which are the best stock picks for the coming year and which will be losers? Let us consider how to pick stock winners for 2017. CNBC writes about experts who expect stocks to rise next year.

U.S. stocks should rise slightly in 2017 as equities benefit from tax cuts, according to CNBC’s Market Strategist Survey.

The survey of 13 strategists’ outlooks published since the U.S. election found the median 2017 S&P 500 price target is 2,325, or 3 percent from Friday’s close of 2,258. Credit Suisse only gave a mid-2017 price target of 2,200, while Wells Fargo Investment Institute gave a range of 2,230 to 2,330.

U.S. stocks have soared since President-elect Donald Trump won the election as traders bet on increased growth from Trump’s promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation.

How fast will Trump’s proposals be enacted into law and regulations and when they are in place how well will they work? And are there stocks at risk despite the general optimism? Trump laid into Boeing regarding the new Air Force One being considered for the next decade.

Trump may have been upset when the CEO of Boeing discussed the risk to his company if Trump engages in a trade war with China or he may have been sending a message to the entire defense industry that they will be held accountable to costs. A follow-up phone call from the Boeing CEO resulted in all sorts of positive comments. Never-the-less there may be stocks at risk despite the Trump stock rally. Which stocks are these?

Read the article for our list of major defense stocks that could be at risk even if the market is going up.

Interest Rates

The Fed just raised interest rates and we can expect to see more increases in the coming year. What happens to stocks when interest rates go up?

In the early 2000’s interest rates were low and everyone bought more home than they could afford. When rates when up all of those balloons on mortgages came due with higher rates and the housing market collapsed. Today we are seeing a stock bubble based on low interest rates. What will happen to stocks when interest rates go up? The point is that low rates have driven an 8 year bull market in stocks and that is due to come to an end. Will the market calmly slow down or will it collapse?

Banks and utility stocks are interest rate sensitive but in opposite directions. Banks like high rates and utilities suffer. But if rates go up too fast the whole economy is at risk. And as rates go up we could see a reprise of the housing market and stock market collapse of 2008. Warren Buffett is holding onto historic amounts of cash which is what he tends to do when the market is about to tank like it did with the dot com bubble.

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