It is illegal for anyone in the USA to accept bets on the outcome of an election in the USA. Nevertheless, there are extensive bets on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. In fact, the Polymarket decentralized crypto market has registered $1 billion in crypto wagers on the outcome of this year’s contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. This has become so popular, and potentially lucrative, that Polymarket is not the only one providing a market to bet on the election. We would like to remind our readers that there are ways to bet on the outcome of the upcoming election that do not require a direct bet on the electoral college outcome but rather on how the results may affect the crypto world at large. There are practical ways to bet on the election outcome with less risk and more upside potential than direct bets on the election outcome.
What Are the Odds for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
The fractional odds quoted in the UK (where it is legal to bet on the US election) are 1:1 for Trump. In other words, you bet $5 and get $5 plus your money back if you win and otherwise lose your $5. If you bet $4 on Harris with 4:5 odds you get $5 plus your $4 bet back and otherwise lose your $4. What this tells us is that the betting market in the UK thinks that Trump has an even shot at returning to the White House but Harris has a slightly less shot at beating him. Thus you double your money with a successful Trump bet and do slightly better if you win a Harris bet.
What Is the Best Crypto Bet on the 2024 Election?
Let us assume that Trump’s attempts to get donations from the crypto world by promising to make the USA the center of the crypto universe are genuine, that they would result in real benefits to investors in Bitcoin, Ether, and the rest of crypto. That means if you buy $100,000 worth of Bitcoin today you might see a healthy appreciation or even double your investment in the year to come if he wins. If he loses, you might see some losses in the ten to twenty percent range but would not lose all of your $100,000. However, if you place a 1:1 bet for $100,000 worth of crypto in the UK and Trump loses you will lose your $100,000 while you will double your money if you win. The point is that in our two scenarios the upside potential may be more or less the same but the downside risk is substantially different. For our money, the best crypto bet on the election will be to buy or sell crypto assets based on your expectation of the outcome of the race and not risk everything in a single wager. To the extent that a pure wager interests you, make sure to do it with money that you can afford to part with, forever.
Who Has the Best Record for Predicting Presidential Elections?
Constant polling in the USA state by state shows a very close race. We learned in 2016 how wrong the polls can be as they predicted Clinton as the victor and Trump won the electoral college despite losing the popular vote. Someone who got the prediction right that year was Alan Lichtman, a historian who devised a set of 13 “keys” that have successfully predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential races. The one that he missed was the Bush Gore race where it was decided by the Supreme Court when it overruled the Florida Supreme Court’s decision to do a manual recount of the vote that separated the candidates by only 600 out of six million votes cast. The Florida court was following Florida law that required a recount if the margin was less than 0.5% and it was closer to 0.01%. Thus, many believe that Lichtman’s prediction of a Gore victory could just as well have been accurate.
Nevertheless, as reported by The New York Times, Lichtman predicts that Harris will win the 2024 presidential race based on his “13 keys.” Lichtman says that his “keys” based on the entire history of US presidential elections are better predictors than pundits and polls. Recent history has largely supported his assertion.