Stochastics has been a useful tool in predicting stock prices since it was developed by George Lane 75 years ago. This tool assesses how closing price and price range relate or a given time frame. Stock investors and traders can use a stochastic trend to determine if they should buy or sell their securities. This tool is always used in conjunction with methods like important moving averages in determining when is the best time to buy or sell.
What “Stochastic” Means
The dictionary definition of stochastic is something that has a pattern or distribution which is random, cannot be predicted exactly, but can be analyzed using statistics. In stock investing and trading, stochastics help make sense of what often appear to be random movements in individual equity and market prices. This is similar to so called chaos theory in which seemingly chaotic events can be, to a degree predicted and prepared for. In stock trading the stochastic approach is generally used to determine overbought and oversold situations in order to guide purchases and sales.
Stochastic Forecasting Models
All stochastic forecasting models look at data sequences as they unfold over time. Point is to draw useful conclusions from the process. In general, stochastic processes are considered stationary or non-stationary. The three types of models are auto-regressive processes, moving averages, and combinations of moving averages and auto-regressive processes. Auto-regressive simply means that post information is used to predict future events such as when a stock trend is going up and you predict that the trend will continue.
The approach used most commonly in stochastic trading is called a stochastic oscillator. This tool indicates momentum by comparing trading ranges and closing prices within a defined timeframe. By using moving averages and adjusting time frames, it is possible to make this indicator more or less sensitive and more or less reliable. The goal is always to decide if an equity or market is overbought or oversold in order to make profitable decisions about when to buy or sell. There will always be a tradeoff between making the most timely (and most profitable) trade.
A full stochastic oscillator uses two lines on a trading chart. One, called the %K line, notes the current price (typically a closing price). The other line, called the %D line, notes a calculation based on the moving average. The first is also called the fast line while the second is also called the slow line. What traders look out for is when line crosses over the other in a stochastic cross or crossover. When the fast or K line passes below the slow or D line it is considered a signal to sell the equity and when the fast or K line passes above the slow or D line, it is a signal to buy.
Nifty Stochastic Chart
The National Index Fifty is the weighted average of fifty stocks in the Indian national stock exchange. The Nifty stochastic chart is one of two primary stock indices used for the Indian exchange. This index is managed and owned by India Index Services and Products and is the largest Indian financial product. It includes both offshore and onshore exchange traded funds. It is the most actively traded contract in the world covering thirteen sectors. The most heavily weighted sectors are financials, energy, and consumer goods.
Ichimoku Stochastic Strategy
This is a scalping strategy used in trading Forex. It uses an Ichimoku medium setting and a dot MSS oscillator as its indicators. It was created for high-low binary options but also works in non-binary settings. Ichimoku refers to the Ichimoku cloud, a set of technical indicators designed to demonstrate levels of support and resistance. Use this method for intraday scalping with as many as ten charts open at the same time and set to five and ten minute intervals. The medium Ichimoku settings are eight, twenty-five, and forty-eight.
Backward Stochastic Differential Equation
Backward and forward equations generally refer to differential equations that predict probability density in a stochastic process. A backward stochastic differential equation is solved backward in time. Stochastic differential equations are those for which 1 or more of the terms involve a stochastic process. Thus, the solution is also a stochastic process. This approach is used to model stock prices as well as heat-related physical systems. The point is to make sense of and be able to predict future behavior of the system (stock prices) in a seemingly random environment.