Do Technical Signs Predict a Crash?

Archive for July, 2017

Do Technical Signs Predict a Crash?

By Jim Walker on Monday, July 31st, 2017 | Comments Off

The stock market keeps going up despite what would appear to be overpriced stocks. But eventually every rally ends, sometimes with bang and sometimes with a whimper. Market Watch writes that a technical flag indicates the market may just have entered a danger zone.
The S&P 500 keeps closing just short of a critical level in the high 2400 range. This is similar to what happened going up to the 2000 dot com crash and the 2007 crash that ushered in the Great Recession.
This is investing via technical indicators. And if you are buying into an index fund that tracks the […]

Are Coal Companies a Good Contrarian Bet?

By Jim Walker on Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 | Comments Off

Despite the conversion of many electric plants to natural gas and away from coal, the USA still consumed 800 million tons of coal in 2015, the last year for which totals are available. We wrote recently about the bleak future of coal.
Electric companies have been switching plants from coal to natural gas and closing coal plants. Big consumers like GM and Toyota insist on clean energy and won’t use coal even if environmental regulations are relaxed. That is the bleak future of coal.
Peabody Energy is the largest coal producer in the USA as well as in Australia. The stock sold […]

Three Potential Black Swans

By Jim Walker on Monday, July 24th, 2017 | Comments Off

Despite concerns about stocks being overpriced the markets keep going higher and higher. And that means stocks all over the world are going up. Every time this sort of market euphoria occurs it is eventually followed by a day or reckoning. Market Watch writes that the recent breakout in stocks should not be trusted and cites three potential black swans. Black swans, by the way, are unpredictable or unforeseen events. They discuss this issue after nine global stock indexes have topped out at the same time.
There have been 39 times when each of those nine indexes has closed at multiyear […]

What Investments Do You Want to Own Next Year?

By Jim Walker on Wednesday, July 19th, 2017 | Comments Off

When you follow stocks in the news there is an element of breathless melodrama. Nellie has been kidnapped and is tied to the train tracks. The train is coming. Will the hero get there in time? One moment the answer is yes and the next moment it is no. If you fall for the melodrama of stock reporting you are caught in a gut wrenching never-never land of worry about next month, next week or even tomorrow. A healthy alternative is to pick investments based on a longer term view. What investments do you want to own next year and […]

Should You Borrow Money in Order to Invest?

By Jim Walker on Monday, July 17th, 2017 | Comments Off

The stock market keeps going up and anyone not invested is losing out. Right? We have commonly preached about having a cash reserve for living expenses and paying off credit cards before investing in the stock market. But interest rates are low and the S&P 500 gas gone up 70% in the last five years. If you simply traded on margin, bought an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 you would have paid around 8% a year on your investment capital. So, should you borrow money in order to invest in stocks? How about other investments like your home?
How to […]

Your Best Bet May Be the Gaming Industry

By Jim Walker on Wednesday, July 12th, 2017 | Comments Off

A lot of attention has been paid to the handful of high tech stocks that have been leading the market higher and higher. But are these really the best places to put your money? Your best bet may be the gaming industry which is up 50 percent this year. Likewise home builders, hotels and resorts, health care and even railroads have done better than the high tech darlings. Part of this appears to be investors rotating out of the high priced tech sector and part is that the economy is not doing all that badly and profits are being spread […]

Should You Invest in Canada?

By Jim Walker on Monday, July 10th, 2017 | Comments Off

Warren Buffett just bought stock in a Canadian mortgage underwriter, Home Capital Group. Should you invest in Canada when the Oracle of Omaha does? An article in The New York Times discusses why you should not go where Warren Buffett invests in this case.
When Warren Buffett acts, investors notice. And after he took a roughly $300 million position last month in Home Capital Group, a troubled Canadian mortgage underwriter, some investors saw it as a vote of confidence not only in that company, but also in Canadian stocks over all.
Al Rosen takes a different view. A veteran forensic accountant and […]

Which Retailers Will Survive in the Era of Amazon?

By Jim Walker on Thursday, July 6th, 2017 | Comments Off

Amazon.com has discovered a formula for success in the world of retail sales. They skip having a whole host of bricks and mortar stores and sell online. The cost of their success has been borne by retailers far and wide. Many have gone out of business and CNBC discusses large department store stocks heading for zero due to losing business to Amazon.com.
Retail could be one of the best contrarian plays out there, as long as investors steer clear of the nation’s department stores.
Eaton Vance chief equity investment officer Eddie Perkin is making that call.
“You have to be careful with the […]

Will the New Mass Market Model Help Tesla?

By Jim Walker on Monday, July 3rd, 2017 | Comments Off

The new Tesla Model 3 is intended for a mass market unlike previous models. The basic car will be listed at $35,000 although buyers who have already reserved their cars are reporting paying closer to $50,000 for various bells and whistles. Tesla is aiming to produce 240,000 cars a year, up from about 100,000 right now. You will have to take a test drive to see if you like the new model but how about the stock? Will the new mass market model help Tesla?
Will the Stock Go Down?
CNBC is skeptical that Tesla can make a profit mass producing this […]

Archive for July, 2017