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Posts Tagged ‘trade war’


Could Your Investments Lose 30% of Their Value Next Year?

Earnings have been driving growth in the stock market. A trade war is developing and we are entering the 9th year of an economic expansion. CNBC writes that 20% earnings growth is not sustainable and predicts that stocks could plummet 20% to 30% next year.
“You could be looking at the first 20 percent-plus decline in the S&P since the financial crisis,” the firm’s chief U.S. strategist said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”
His worst-case scenario is a 30 percent plunge next year.
“Our primary list of concerns is on the earnings front,” Clissold said. “Earnings growth north of 20 percent isn’t sustainable, […]

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What Are Today’s Foreign Investment Opportunities?

The clock is ticking down to trade wars between the USA and China, the USA and the European Union, and the USA and both Mexico and Canada. We just wrote about which offshore investments are risky. But, what are today’s foreign investment opportunities? We wrote about foreign direct investment as a guide to where opportunities lie within and outside of the USA. That was in 2014. The same year we noted that offshore investment timing is important as well. That would certainly seem to be the case today with the risk of a global recession due to a trade war […]

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Will Boeing Have to Outsource Production to Remain Profitable?

The evolving trade war between the USA under Trump and everyone else is having unexpected consequences. We just wrote about Harley Davidson moving production out of the USA. No matter that Harley is an American icon. It is not a huge company. How about the leaders of American industry that are also the biggest US exporters? The question we are going to consider is this. Will Boeing have to outsource production to remain profitable? A good article on CNN looks at the top US exports.
Yes, the nation’s businesses and consumers spent $566 billion more on imported goods and services in […]

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Why Is Harley Davidson Moving Production Out of the USA?

Who would have thought? Harley Davidson, an American icon, is going to build motorcycles outside of America! Why is Harley Davidson moving production facilities out of the USA? As the Trump trade war between the USA and everyone else ramps up Harley Davidson is looking at Europe where they sell about 40,000 bikes a year. This is second only to their sales in the USA. Harley would be an obvious target for tariffs by the EU. It is an iconic American brand and it started in a state, Wisconsin, that voted for Donald Trump. Harley Davidson is looking to remain […]

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Should You Invest in US Steel Companies?

It started with Trump threatening to start a trade war with China. And now it has come around a trade war with our North American neighbors and the European Union. Today the president announced that there will be tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico and the European Union. While economists and free-traders wring their hands in anguish we wonder this, should you invest in US steel companies?
United States Steel Producers
There are only two steel producers in the USA, Nucor and United States Steel Corporation.
US Steel was once the largest corporation in the world and a century ago […]

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What Will Buybacks Do to Your Investments?

The rationale for offering multinationals a tax break on repatriation of offshore cash was that they would bring the cash back to the USA, expand their businesses at home, create jobs and stimulate the economy. Apple was in the news for bringing back money in order to pay a $38 Billion tax bill. And other companies are also taking advantage of the changes in the tax law. But, instead of investing to create jobs, they are buying back shares of their stocks. Our question is, what will buybacks do to your investments? Business Insider writes that a record number of […]

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Is This the Start of the Trump Stock Slump?

When it became clear that Trump would be the next president the market panicked. Then the market rose on expectation that Trump might replicate Reagan years supply side economics and prosperity. This was the Trump bump that lasted until Trump reality set in. NBC News writes how stocks hit a three week low after the inauguration and Trump’s protectionist speech. Is this the start of the Trump stock slump?
European stocks and bond yields dropped on Monday and the dollar hit a six-week low after President Donald Trump began his term in office with a protectionist speech that pushed a nervous […]

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Will Trump’s Trade Policies Kill His Stock Market Rally?

When it was clean that Trump would be the next president the stock market tanked. Then investors thought of the promises of lower taxes, corporate money repatriated from offshore and fiscal stimulus via infrastructure repairs. And the stock market rallied. Now the specter of a trade war emerges as Trump’s trade policies become clearer. Will Trump’s trade policies kill his stock market rally? Will they kill the American economy? The Huffington Post writes that that stocks could suffer as Trump’s trade policies take shape.
The year-end stocks rally on the heels of the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president was […]

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