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Archive for January, 2017


It Is Not Too Late to Buy into the Trump Rally

After a moment’s hesitation the stock market started to rally after the election of Donald Trump. Many stocks have peaked but it is not too late to buy into the Trump rally. Why is that? Forbes suggests a dozen stocks that could double under Trump.
Goldman Sachs recently recommended over 80 stocks that are poised to jump during President Trump’s administration.
That’s a lot of stocks. Not all of them are dividend payers, and many of them have already jumped dramatically in the last few weeks, bringing them at or near their 52-week highs.
You might think this means it’s too late to […]

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Which States Will Be Hurt by Scrapping NAFTA?

Trump supporters firmly believe that getting rid of or at least renegotiating NAFTA will result in more jobs in the USA. Is that true? Who gets helped and who gets hurt if trade with Mexico diminishes? Texas Public Radio says that Trump’s call to renegotiate or kill NAFTA will hurt Texas.
A new pickup truck comes off the line nearly once a minute at Toyota’s San Antonio factory.
The Japanese automaker set up in Texas more than a decade ago to be closer to truck-buyers-and to take advantage of cross-border trade.
“The fact that it’s close to the NAFTA corridor,” says Toyota Motor […]

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Is This the Start of the Trump Stock Slump?

When it became clear that Trump would be the next president the market panicked. Then the market rose on expectation that Trump might replicate Reagan years supply side economics and prosperity. This was the Trump bump that lasted until Trump reality set in. NBC News writes how stocks hit a three week low after the inauguration and Trump’s protectionist speech. Is this the start of the Trump stock slump?
European stocks and bond yields dropped on Monday and the dollar hit a six-week low after President Donald Trump began his term in office with a protectionist speech that pushed a nervous […]

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Will Eisenhower Era Jawboning Work on Stocks Today?

Those who believe that Trump will “make America great again” are thinking of the 1950’s, the years when Ike (5 star general turned president Eisenhower) was in the oval office. During his time in office Ike was known to call the president of US Steel and “jawbone” him into not raising the price of steel because when steel prices went up so did the price of every item made with steel or by machines with steel parts. It was considered the first step in inflation. The same approach was used by President Lyndon Johnson during the 1960’s when the word […]

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Prepare for the Next Stock Market Crash

The S&P 500 continues to rise on the eve of the new presidency. The promises of lower taxes, fiscal stimulus from infrastructure spending, decreased governmental regulation and repatriated offshore corporate cash have many investors very excited. Why then do some analysts write about how to prepare for the next stock market crash? Money Morning says there is stock market crash coming and you should consider your investments based on that fact.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both broke record highs last week (Jan. 6) as the Dow nears a record 20,000 points. But with stocks soaring, the possibility of a stock […]

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What Happens to Their Economy When Mexico Runs Out of Foreign Currency Reserves?

Mexico is struggling to keep their currency from falling too far and too fast. The problem is that buying pesos with dollar reserves is not helping and it is eating up their currency reserves. Bloomberg says Mexico needs new peso-saving tools.
Mexico’s central bank, struggling to lift the peso from its record lows, is getting backed into a corner after spending $2 billion last week with little effect.
Recent dollar sales aren’t helping boost the currency, foreign reserves are faltering and economists expect policy makers to raise interest rates again in February after five hikes last year. While some analysts say Mexico […]

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What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?

A new president is about to take office. Successful investors will be the ones who anticipate how the next administration and congress will affect the economy and how the various factors at play will affect investments. In the case of Trump and a Republican controlled congress we expect tax cuts, an attempt to bring corporate cash back from overseas and increased spending on U.S. infrastructure. If these plans come to fruition there will be at least short and medium term stimulus to the economy. A predictable result will also be increased interest rates, namely a tighter monetary policy. The value […]

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Does Extraordinary Uncertainty Lead to Extraordinary Stock Market Risk?

On the eve of Trump’s inauguration the stock market is up and many are enthusiastic about tax cuts, repatriated corporate cash and the fiscal stimulus associated with fixing much of America’s broken infrastructure. We wrote about stocks at risk in the Trump years but there may be more. Lawrence Summers, former Harvard Prof. and Secretary of the Treasury during the Clinton years, believes that markets are underestimating risks associated with a Trump presidency. Bloomberg reports.
“This is probably the largest transition ideologically and in terms of substantive policy that we’ve seen in the U.S. in the last three quarters of a […]

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